Denali CWPP
Laramie Simulation
40 runs · 31 with a result · generated November 8, 2026 at 11:07 AM
Executive summary
The whole report in a few sentences. Every number here is in the pages below; none is more precise than the runs are.
31 of 40 runs have a result. The worst case is Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026: 46,612 acres burned, 3,921 buildings reached, 348 roads, worth about $784,200,000.
The best case is Burn probability · baseline weather (copy): nothing reached — 3,921 fewer buildings than the worst case.
No run reaches a building.
Up to $784,200,000 of assets is reached (in Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026), summing the value each asset layer carries for what the fire got to.
Building counts include the house-to-house estimate where a run asked for it; it is an estimate from building separation and wind, not a published model.
What Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) does differently from Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026. Takes away: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Changes: Engine FARSITE→minimum travel time; Wind 71→20 mph; Wind from W (273°)→SW (225°); 1-hour fuel moisture 26.7→4%; 10-hour fuel moisture 10.4→6%; 100-hour fuel moisture 14→9%; Spotting 5%→20%; Spotting seed 325179→694906 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream BUCKEYE_50510_2026-03-08_2026-03-15.fw21→none; Temperature 58→default °F; Humidity 20→default%; Different fire starts; Start 3/12 5:00 AM→9/7 8:00 AM; Duration 61→6 h; Engines leave 10→5 min after ignition; Engine speed 35→60 mph.
Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026
$784,200,000
Contents
What we compared
One row per run. Only the choices that differ between runs get a column, so what each run did differently is the whole table.
| Run | Treatments | Weather | Burning hours | Weather stream | Fire starts | Start | Duration | Engines | House to house | Smoke | Ember spotting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burn probability · baseline weather | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 6 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Baseline · no treatment | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 6 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Baseline · smoke & debris flows | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 6 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break · smoke & debris flows | Fuel break, Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 6 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Big fire · smoke | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 3 ignition points | Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Big fire · burn probability & fire behavior | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 3 ignition points | Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Cheyenne west edge · SW wind | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Cheyenne west edge · FARSITE | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour in steady weather | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| North Cheyenne neighbourhoods · SW wind | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| WXS test - Carr 21411 conditioning | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | CARR_21411_conditioning.wxs | 1 ignition points | Jun 6, 1996, 11:00 PM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | 21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 8, 1996, 12:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Burnout test · line ahead of the head | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | not modeled | torching trees only |
| FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 2 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | 21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 8, 1996, 12:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 2 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 3 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 4 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 5 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 6 | Fuel break, Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path 2 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path 3 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path 4 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 10 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path 5 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path 6 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Fuel break across the path 7 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 10 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Marshall Fire weather test | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Marshall Fire weather test 2 | Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Marshall Fire weather test 2 | Fuel break | Dry fuels, 46.1 mph wind from the west-southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | KBDU_72053300160_2021-12-27_2021-12-31.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Dec 30, 2021, 11:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Baseline · no treatment 2 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | not modeled | Fuel spotting: grass more; Structure embers: 1 per burning building per stop, up to 500 m, 100% chance to light; Every 30 min (experimental) |
| Baseline · no treatment 3 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | 1 ignition points | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
| Active hours repro (QA test) | Fuel break, Fuel break | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | 10 AM to 8 PM | windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM | 8 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026 | none | Moist fuels, 71 mph wind from the west shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream | around the clock | BUCKEYE_50510_2026-03-08_2026-03-15.fw21 | 1 ignition points | Mar 12, 2026, 5:00 AM | 61 hours | leave after 10 min at 35 mph, to the fire | estimated, typical homes | modeled (screening estimate) | torching trees only |
| Baseline · no treatment 4 | none | Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread | around the clock | none | A drawn area | Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM | 2 hours | leave after 5 min at 60 mph, to the fire | not estimated | not modeled | torching trees only |
Every run compared
Only the asset kinds this simulation counts. A dash means the run has no result yet.
| Run | Acres burned | Structures reached | Structures value | First structure reached | Roads reached | Road miles burned | Evacuation zones reached | Fire stations reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burn probability · baseline weather | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) | 1,067 | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) | 1,067 | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Baseline · no treatment | 1,712 | 6 of 66,752 within reach | $1,200,000 | — | 8 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 3.4 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | 17,895 | 202 of 66,752 within reach | $40,400,000 | — | 90 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 36 mi | — | 1 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path | 1,057 | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) | 1,067 | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Baseline · smoke & debris flows | 1,787 | 6 of 66,752 within reach | $1,200,000 | — | 10 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 3.9 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fuel break · smoke & debris flows | 1,084 | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Big fire · smoke | 42,133 | 567 of 66,752 within reach | $113,400,000 | — | 168 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 84 mi | — | 2 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Big fire · burn probability & fire behavior | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cheyenne west edge · SW wind | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cheyenne west edge · FARSITE | 3,043 | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | 68 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 50 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| North Cheyenne neighbourhoods · SW wind | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WXS test - Carr 21411 conditioning | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Burnout test · line ahead of the head | 19,994 | 368 of 66,752 within reach | $73,600,000 | — | 126 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 175 mi | — | 1 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 2 | 29 | 0 of 66,752 within reach | $0 | None reached | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) | 3,509 | 27 of 66,752 within reach | $5,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 34 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 2 | 3,509 | 27 of 66,752 within reach | $5,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 34 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 3 | 3,509 | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 34 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 4 | 3,509 | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 34 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 5 | 3,509 | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 34 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 6 | 3,509 | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 34 mi | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path 2 | 1,067 | 5 of 66,752 within reach | $1,000,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path 3 | 1,067 | 5 of 66,752 within reach | $1,000,000 | — | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path 4 | 1,071 | 5 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $1,000,000 | — | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path 5 | 303 | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | None reached | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path 6 | 303 | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | None reached | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Fuel break across the path 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marshall Fire weather test | 253 | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | None reached | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Marshall Fire weather test 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marshall Fire weather test 2 | 289 | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | None reached | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Baseline · no treatment 2 | 14,699 | 239 of 66,752 within reach | $47,800,000 | — | 118 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 110 mi | 13 of 25 within reach | 1 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Baseline · no treatment 3 | 1,806 | 10 of 66,752 within reach | $2,000,000 | — | 14 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 11 mi | 8 of 25 within reach | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Active hours repro (QA test) | 3,096 | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 38 mi | 0 of 25 within reach | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026 | 46,612 | 3,921 of 66,752 within reach | $784,200,000 | — | 348 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 240 mi | 0 of 25 within reach | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
| Baseline · no treatment 4 | 1,806 | 10 of 66,752 within reach | $2,000,000 | — | 14 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | 11 mi | 1 of 55 within reach | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer |
Improvements vs baseline
Each run measured against Fuel break across the path (copy): what it does differently, and what that bought. Green is better than the baseline, red is worse. Saved means the baseline lost it and this run did not; a time bought is how much later the fire got there.
| Run | What it changes | Saved | Newly lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Baseline · no treatment | Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). | — | — |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Spotting seed 303994→694906 (embers land elsewhere); Duration 2→6 h. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Baseline · smoke & debris flows | Adds: smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). | — | — |
| Fuel break · smoke & debris flows | Adds: Fuel break (treatment); smoke screening estimate. | — | — |
| Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) | Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→minimum travel time; Spotting seed 303994→694906 (embers land elsewhere); Duration 2→6 h. | — | — |
| Big fire · smoke | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→9/5 8:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Cheyenne west edge · FARSITE | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→325179 (embers land elsewhere); Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→9/5 8:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Burnout test · line ahead of the head | Adds: Burnout 1, lit +1:00 (timed ignition); house-to-house spread estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Spotting seed 303994→978569 (embers land elsewhere). | — | — |
| FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 2 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/8 12:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 2 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 3 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 4 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 5 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Windy front test (hourly wind) 6 | Adds: Fuel break (treatment); house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path 2 | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path 3 | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path 4 | Changes: Wind 20→10 mph; 1-hour fuel moisture 4→3%; 10-hour fuel moisture 6→5.1%; 100-hour fuel moisture 9→7.2%. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path 5 | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Fuel break across the path 6 | The same inputs. | — | — |
| Marshall Fire weather test | Changes: Spotting seed 303994→858610 (embers land elsewhere). | — | — |
| Marshall Fire weather test 2 | Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Wind 20→46.1 mph; Wind from SW (225°)→W (250°); 1-hour fuel moisture 4→4.7%; 10-hour fuel moisture 6→5.7%; 100-hour fuel moisture 9→13.8%; Spotting 20%→5%; Spotting seed 303994→699351 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→KBDU_72053300160_2021-12-27_2021-12-31.fw21; Temperature default→44.6 °F; Humidity default→19%; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→12/30 11:00 AM. | — | — |
| Baseline · no treatment 2 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Spotting seed 303994→94338 (embers land elsewhere); Ember spotting off→Fuel spotting: grass more; Structure embers: 1 per burning building per stop, up to 500 m, 100% chance to light; Every 30 min (experimental). | — | — |
| Baseline · no treatment 3 | Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Spotting seed 303994→94338 (embers land elsewhere). | — | — |
| Active hours repro (QA test) | Adds: Fuel break (treatment); house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Spotting seed 303994→438014 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→7/15 11:00 AM; Duration 2→8 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026 | Adds: house-to-house spread estimate; smoke screening estimate. Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Engine minimum travel time→FARSITE; Wind 20→71 mph; Wind from SW (225°)→W (273°); 1-hour fuel moisture 4→26.7%; 10-hour fuel moisture 6→10.4%; 100-hour fuel moisture 9→14%; Spotting 20%→5%; Spotting seed 303994→325179 (embers land elsewhere); Weather stream none→BUCKEYE_50510_2026-03-08_2026-03-15.fw21; Temperature default→58 °F; Humidity default→20%; Different fire starts; Start 9/7 8:00 AM→3/12 5:00 AM; Duration 2→61 h; Engines leave 5→10 min after ignition; Engine speed 60→35 mph. | — | — |
| Baseline · no treatment 4 | Takes away: Fuel break (treatment). Changes: Spotting seed 303994→94338 (embers land elsewhere); Different fire starts. | — | — |
Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Baseline · no treatment against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Takes away
Reading this run's fire…
Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy) against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Baseline · smoke & debris flows against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break · smoke & debris flows against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Reading this run's fire…
Burn probability · baseline weather (copy) against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Big fire · smoke against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Cheyenne west edge · FARSITE against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Burnout test · line ahead of the head against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 2 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Windy front test (hourly wind) against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Windy front test (hourly wind) 2 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Windy front test (hourly wind) 3 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Windy front test (hourly wind) 4 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Windy front test (hourly wind) 5 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Windy front test (hourly wind) 6 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path 2 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path 3 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path 4 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path 5 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Fuel break across the path 6 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Nothing in the inputs differs. Any difference in the result is the engine's own (spotting is random), or an input edited after a run ran.
Reading this run's fire…
Marshall Fire weather test against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Marshall Fire weather test 2 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Baseline · no treatment 2 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Baseline · no treatment 3 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Active hours repro (QA test) against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Adds
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Baseline · no treatment 4 against Fuel break across the path (copy)
What B does differently
Takes away
Changes
Reading this run's fire…
Burn probability · baseline weather
Run 1 of 40 · FailedThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
6 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain for 6 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 694906, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run failed. The worker stopped before the job finished: slow burn probability test run, replaced; exit code 137
Fuel break across the path (copy)
Run 2 of 40 · Finished · 1,067 acres · 1 structure · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,067 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy)
Run 3 of 40 · Finished · 1,067 acres · 1 structure · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,067 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Baseline · no treatment
Run 4 of 40 · Finished · 1,712 acres · 6 structures · 8 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,712 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 10:00 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 6 of 66,752 within reach | $1,200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 8 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 3.4 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Burn probability · baseline weather (copy)
Run 5 of 40 · Finished · 17,895 acres · 202 structures · 90 roads · 1 stationLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
6 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:06 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 6 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 694906, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
17,895 acres burned over 6 h to Sep 7, 2:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 202 of 66,752 within reach | $40,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 90 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 36 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 1 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | — |
Fuel break across the path
Run 6 of 40 · Finished · 1,057 acres · 1 structure · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,057 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path (copy) (copy)
Run 7 of 40 · Finished · 1,067 acres · 1 structure · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,067 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Baseline · smoke & debris flows
Run 8 of 40 · Finished · 1,787 acres · 6 structures · 10 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
worst Hazardous (434 µg/m³ PM2.5), 384 of 625 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 31096 at Sep 7, 9:00 AM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,787 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 6 of 66,752 within reach | $1,200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 10 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 3.9 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
After the fire · debris flows
What the burned slopes could send down their channels in the first storms after this fire: the USGS post-fire debris-flow models (Staley et al. 2017 likelihood, Gartner et al. 2014 volume, combined hazard after Cannon et al. 2010) run on the simulated burn, its severity projected from flame length. A projection for planning, not an assessment of a mapped burn.
| Storm (peak 15 min) | High | Moderate | Low | Likeliest | Material | Roads crossed | Buildings in the way |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 mm/h | 0 | 0 | 150 | 29% | 87,023 m³ | 0 (0 high) | 0 (0 high) |
| 24 mm/h | 0 | 93 | 57 | 61% | 123,566 m³ | 2 (0 high) | 6 (0 high) |
| 40 mm/h | 15 | 116 | 19 | 96% | 215,455 m³ | 2 (2 high) | 14 (1 high) |
In the way at 40 mm/h, worst first
| Hazard | What | How | Likelihood | Material |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | UNNAMED · WYDOT_Roadway_Names | crosses a channel | 92% | 3,920 m³ (5,127 yd³) |
| High | UNNAMED · WYDOT_Roadway_Names | crosses a channel | 92% | 3,920 m³ (5,127 yd³) |
| High | 53154 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 3 m | 92% | 1,667 m³ (2,180 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34362 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 0 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30372 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 2 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30372 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 2 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34363 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 2 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34362 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 10 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30373 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 12 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30373 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 12 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34363 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 34 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34361 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 46 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34361 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 48 m | 92% | 817 m³ (1,069 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34414 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 205 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30292 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 211 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
Burn probability · baseline weather (copy)
Run 9 of 40 · FailedThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
6 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain for 6 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 694906, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run failed. The worker stopped before the job finished: slow burn probability test run, replaced; exit code 137
Fuel break · smoke & debris flows
Run 10 of 40 · Finished · 1,084 acres · 1 structure · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 238 acres.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
worst Hazardous (298 µg/m³ PM2.5), 273 of 575 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 31273 at Sep 7, 9:00 AM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,084 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 1 of 66,752 within reach | $200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
After the fire · debris flows
What the burned slopes could send down their channels in the first storms after this fire: the USGS post-fire debris-flow models (Staley et al. 2017 likelihood, Gartner et al. 2014 volume, combined hazard after Cannon et al. 2010) run on the simulated burn, its severity projected from flame length. A projection for planning, not an assessment of a mapped burn.
| Storm (peak 15 min) | High | Moderate | Low | Likeliest | Material | Roads crossed | Buildings in the way |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 mm/h | 0 | 0 | 92 | 25% | 57,614 m³ | 0 (0 high) | 0 (0 high) |
| 24 mm/h | 0 | 58 | 34 | 55% | 81,807 m³ | 0 (0 high) | 4 (0 high) |
| 40 mm/h | 10 | 73 | 9 | 94% | 142,642 m³ | 0 (0 high) | 12 (1 high) |
In the way at 40 mm/h, worst first
| Hazard | What | How | Likelihood | Material |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 53154 · Building_Footprints | beside a channel, 3 m | 92% | 1,665 m³ (2,178 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34414 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 205 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30292 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 211 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30293 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 216 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34415 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 224 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30291 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 229 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30294 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 258 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30372 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 280 m | 92% | 525 m³ (687 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34413 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 286 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34362 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 289 m | 92% | 525 m³ (687 yd³) |
| Moderate | 30373 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 296 m | 92% | 525 m³ (687 yd³) |
| Moderate | 34411 · Building_Footprints | below an outlet, 296 m | 85% | 884 m³ (1,156 yd³) |
Burn probability · baseline weather (copy)
Run 11 of 40 · FinishedLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 660,616 of 660,616 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
54,365 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
6 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain for 6 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 694906, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
| Assets | Reached | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | — | — | — |
| Roads | — | — | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | — | — | — |
Big fire · smoke
Run 12 of 40 · Finished · 42,133 acres · 567 structures · 168 roads · 2 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
3 ignition points
Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 5, 8:15 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
11 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Hazardous (601 µg/m³ PM2.5), 1,524 of 1,760 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1543 at Sep 5, 9:00 AM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
42,133 acres burned over 8 h to Sep 5, 4:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 567 of 66,752 within reach | $113,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 168 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 84 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 2 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | — |
Big fire · burn probability & fire behavior
Run 13 of 40 · FailedThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
3 ignition points
Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 314717, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run failed. An error occurred (ValidationException) when calling the PutItem operation: Item size has exceeded the maximum allowed size
Cheyenne west edge · SW wind
Run 14 of 40 · FailedThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 733566, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run failed. An error occurred (ValidationException) when calling the PutItem operation: Item size has exceeded the maximum allowed size
Cheyenne west edge · FARSITE
Run 15 of 40 · Finished · 3,043 acres · 37 structures · 68 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 5, 8:16 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
5 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (124 µg/m³ PM2.5), 8,726 of 24,491 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 10029 at Sep 5, 9:00 AM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour in steady weather for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 325179, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Result
3,043 acres burned over 9 h to Sep 5, 4:59 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 68 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 50 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
North Cheyenne neighbourhoods · SW wind
Run 16 of 40 · FailedThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 5, 1996, 8:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 481787, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run failed. An error occurred (ValidationException) when calling the PutItem operation: Item size has exceeded the maximum allowed size
WXS test - Carr 21411 conditioning
Run 17 of 40 · FailedThe run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jun 6, 1996, 11:00 PM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: CARR_21411_conditioning.wxs
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 976287, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream CARR_21411_conditioning.wxs.
Result
This run failed. The engine wrote no grids.
FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026
Run 18 of 40 · FinishedLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 8, 1996, 12:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: 21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream 21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21.
Result
This run finished without a playback: This run wrote no arrival-time grid, so it cannot be played.
Burnout test · line ahead of the head
Run 19 of 40 · Finished · 19,994 acres · 368 structures · 126 roads · 1 stationLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the simulation's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The run was lengthened from 2 to 4 hours so the fire burns 3 hours past its last burnout, long enough to see what the burnouts did.
Note
This run was spread in 2 legs, one per burnout time. Each leg after the first is lit from the fire's edge then and the burnouts lit then, on ground with everything already burned made non-burnable, and the arrival times are stitched into one fire.
Note
MTT carries the burnouts exactly, to the cell, except for embers in the air at a burnout's time, which are lost.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:08 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
3 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 978569, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
19,994 acres burned over 4 h to Sep 7, 12:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 368 of 66,752 within reach | $73,600,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 126 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 175 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 1 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | — |
FW21 test - FEMS 21411 July 2026 2
Run 20 of 40 · Finished · 29 acres · 0 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 8, 1996, 12:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: 21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 8, 12:17 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
0 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Moderate (14 µg/m³ PM2.5), 0 of 5,536 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream 21411__WeatherHourly__07-04-2026__07-12-2026.fw21.
Result
29 acres burned over 8 h 59 min to Jul 8, 8:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 0 of 66,752 within reach | $0 | — | Not reached |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Windy front test (hourly wind)
Run 21 of 40 · Finished · 3,509 acres · 27 structures · 60 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:24 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
5 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (147 µg/m³ PM2.5), 22,864 of 45,633 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,509 acres burned over 9 h to Jul 15, 8:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 27 of 66,752 within reach | $5,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 34 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Windy front test (hourly wind) 2
Run 22 of 40 · Finished · 3,509 acres · 27 structures · 60 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:24 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
5 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (147 µg/m³ PM2.5), 22,864 of 45,633 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,509 acres burned over 9 h to Jul 15, 8:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 27 of 66,752 within reach | $5,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 34 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Windy front test (hourly wind) 3
Run 23 of 40 · Finished · 3,509 acres · 37 structures · 60 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:24 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
3 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (147 µg/m³ PM2.5), 22,864 of 45,633 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,509 acres burned over 9 h to Jul 15, 8:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 34 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Windy front test (hourly wind) 4
Run 24 of 40 · Finished · 3,509 acres · 37 structures · 60 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:24 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
3 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (147 µg/m³ PM2.5), 22,864 of 45,633 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,509 acres burned over 9 h to Jul 15, 8:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 34 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Windy front test (hourly wind) 5
Run 25 of 40 · Finished · 3,509 acres · 37 structures · 60 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:24 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
3 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (147 µg/m³ PM2.5), 22,864 of 45,633 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,509 acres burned over 9 h to Jul 15, 8:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 34 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Windy front test (hourly wind) 6
Run 26 of 40 · Finished · 3,509 acres · 37 structures · 60 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 238 acres; 165 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:24 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
3 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (147 µg/m³ PM2.5), 22,864 of 45,633 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,509 acres burned over 9 h to Jul 15, 8:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 34 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path 2
Run 27 of 40 · Finished · 1,067 acres · 5 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,067 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 5 of 66,752 within reach | $1,000,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path 3
Run 28 of 40 · Finished · 1,067 acres · 5 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
28 of 28 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,067 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 5 of 66,752 within reach | $1,000,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path 4
Run 29 of 40 · Finished · 1,071 acres · 5 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 1,522,346 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 14%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
157,956 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
10 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 3% · 10-h 5.1% · 100-h 7.2% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
16 of 16 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 10 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Gentle breeze: a clear head fire, running with the wind.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,071 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 5 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $1,000,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path 5
Run 30 of 40 · Finished · 303 acres · 0 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 1,522,346 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 14%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
157,956 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The run was lengthened from 2 to 3.75 hours so the fire burns 3 hours past its last timed ignition, long enough to see what they did.
Note
This run was spread in 1 legs, one per timed ignition time. Each leg after the first is lit from the fire's edge then and what is lit then, on ground with everything already burned made non-burnable, and the arrival times are stitched into one fire.
Note
Nothing could burn after 8:45 AM (+0:45).
Note
MTT carries timed ignitions exactly, to the cell, except for embers in the air at an ignition's time, which are lost.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
28 of 28 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
303 acres burned over 45 min to Sep 7, 8:45 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | — | Not reached |
| Roads | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path 6
Run 31 of 40 · Finished · 303 acres · 0 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 1,522,346 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 14%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
157,956 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The run was lengthened from 2 to 3.75 hours so the fire burns 3 hours past its last timed ignition, long enough to see what they did.
Note
This run was spread in 1 legs, one per timed ignition time. Each leg after the first is lit from the fire's edge then and what is lit then, on ground with everything already burned made non-burnable, and the arrival times are stitched into one fire.
Note
Nothing could burn after 8:45 AM (+0:45).
Note
MTT carries timed ignitions exactly, to the cell, except for embers in the air at an ignition's time, which are lost.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
28 of 28 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 303994, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
303 acres burned over 45 min to Sep 7, 8:45 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | — | Not reached |
| Roads | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Fuel break across the path 7
Run 32 of 40 · Not run yetThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
10 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 3% · 10-h 5.1% · 100-h 7.2% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 10 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Gentle breeze: a clear head fire, running with the wind.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run has not been run, so there is nothing to report for it yet.
Marshall Fire weather test
Run 33 of 40 · Finished · 253 acres · 0 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 1,522,346 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 14%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
157,956 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The run was lengthened from 2 to 3.75 hours so the fire burns 3 hours past its last timed ignition, long enough to see what they did.
Note
This run was spread in 1 legs, one per timed ignition time. Each leg after the first is lit from the fire's edge then and what is lit then, on ground with everything already burned made non-burnable, and the arrival times are stitched into one fire.
Note
Nothing could burn after 8:45 AM (+0:45).
Note
MTT carries timed ignitions exactly, to the cell, except for embers in the air at an ignition's time, which are lost.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
28 of 28 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:15 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 858610, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
253 acres burned over 45 min to Sep 7, 8:44 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | — | Not reached |
| Roads | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Marshall Fire weather test 2
Run 34 of 40 · Not run yetThe run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, so two runs of the same inputs can differ.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
This run has not been run, so there is nothing to report for it yet.
Marshall Fire weather test 2
Run 35 of 40 · Finished · 289 acres · 0 structures · 0 roads · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 1,522,346 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 14%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
157,956 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The run was lengthened from 2 to 3.75 hours so the fire burns 3 hours past its last timed ignition, long enough to see what they did.
Note
This run was spread in 1 legs, one per timed ignition time. Each leg after the first is lit from the fire's edge then and what is lit then, on ground with everything already burned made non-burnable, and the arrival times are stitched into one fire.
Note
Nothing could burn after 11:45 AM (+0:45).
Note
FARSITE carries timed ignitions approximately: each leg restarts from the burned area as a grid, so embers in the air at an ignition's time are lost and the fire's acceleration starts over. Expect the edge just after each timed ignition to run a little behind an unbroken run.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Dec 30, 2021, 11:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: KBDU_72053300160_2021-12-27_2021-12-31.fw21
1-h 4.7% · 10-h 5.7% · 100-h 13.8% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
5% probability
28 of 28 engines arrived, first at Dec 30, 11:15 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Dry fuels, 46.1 mph wind from the west-southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 2 hours.
Gale or stronger: extreme: expect long-range spotting and runs no line holds.
Light spotting (5% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 699351, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Dry air (19% relative humidity), 44.6 °F.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream KBDU_72053300160_2021-12-27_2021-12-31.fw21.
Result
289 acres burned over 1 h to Dec 30, 11:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 0 of 54,371 within reach, 66,752 in the layer | $0 | — | Not reached |
| Roads | 0 of 5,412 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
| Evacuation zones | — | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 16 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Baseline · no treatment 2
Run 36 of 40 · Finished · 14,699 acres · 239 structures · 118 roads · 13 evacuation zones · 1 stationLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
This run was spread in 4 legs, one per timed ignition time. Each leg after the first is lit from the fire's edge then and what is lit then, on ground with everything already burned made non-burnable, and the arrival times are stitched into one fire.
Note
Embers and the fire's edge set 61 cells of homes (urban, NB91) burning, counted as burned from the minute they caught.
Note
Ember spotting (experimental, uncalibrated): 614 embers landed in 3 spotting stops (50 from burning buildings), 304 lit new fires and 6 set homes or buildings burning.
Note
Not compared with the same fire without its embers: the comparison was not asked for.
Note
MTT carries timed ignitions exactly, to the cell, except for embers in the air at an ignition's time, which are lost.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:06 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
0 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 94338, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
14,699 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 239 of 66,752 within reach | $47,800,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 118 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 110 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | 13 of 25 within reach | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 1 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | — |
Evacuation zones
25 of 25 zones are warned. Ready 3 hours before the fire is expected to reach a zone, Set 1.5 hours before, Go when it does or when a trigger point for the zone is reached. Measured: A zone touching one under Go is put on Ready.
Damage (estimate)
Each structure the fire reached, on the field (DINS) scale, from how it burned: lit house to house or under flames of 8 ft or more is Destroyed; lower flames Major or Minor; reached but not burned over, Affected. A screening estimate, not an assessment.
| Destroyed | Major | Minor | Affected | Parcels touched | Value lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 8 | 0 | 30 | 0 | No parcel values |
Baseline · no treatment 3
Run 37 of 40 · Finished · 1,806 acres · 10 structures · 14 roads · 8 evacuation zones · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
1 ignition points
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 94338, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,806 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 10 of 66,752 within reach | $2,000,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 14 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 11 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | 8 of 25 within reach | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Evacuation zones
25 of 25 zones are warned. Ready 3 hours before the fire is expected to reach a zone, Set 1.5 hours before, Go when it does or when a trigger point for the zone is reached. Measured: A zone touching one under Go is put on Ready.
Damage (estimate)
Each structure the fire reached, on the field (DINS) scale, from how it burned: lit house to house or under flames of 8 ft or more is Destroyed; lower flames Major or Minor; reached but not burned over, Affected. A screening estimate, not an assessment.
| Destroyed | Major | Minor | Affected | Parcels touched | Value lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | No parcel values |
Roads cut off
110 roads (0 mi) lose every way out, the first at Sep 7, 9:15 AM; the longest is cut off for 45 min.
| Hour | Roads cut off then |
|---|---|
| +0 h | 0 |
| +1 h | 0 |
| +2 h | 110 |
Active hours repro (QA test)
Run 38 of 40 · Finished · 3,096 acres · 37 structures · 60 roads · 0 evacuation zones · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 309 acres; 145 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Treatment applied
Fuel break applied to 238 acres; 165 cell values left as they were, already no worse than the treatment.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Jul 15, 2026, 11:00 AM
8 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Jul 15, 11:25 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
3 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Unhealthy (144 µg/m³ PM2.5), 23,112 of 45,535 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first 1699 at Jul 15, 1:00 PM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
Plans used
What this run changed or added before the fire spread, and what each one does.
Treatments
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
- Fuel break — the ground becomes: fuel model becomes NB9, bare ground; canopy cover set to 0%; drawn on the map
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 8 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 438014, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads only between 10 AM and 8 PM each day.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream windy-front-laramie-07-11-16-2026.fw21.
Result
3,096 acres burned over 8 h to Jul 15, 6:59 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 37 of 66,752 within reach | $7,400,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 60 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 38 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | 0 of 25 within reach | — | — | Not reached |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Evacuation zones
0 of 25 zones are warned. Ready 3 hours before the fire is expected to reach a zone, Set 1.5 hours before, Go when it does or when a trigger point for the zone is reached. Measured: A zone touching one under Go is put on Ready.
Damage (estimate)
Each structure the fire reached, on the field (DINS) scale, from how it burned: lit house to house or under flames of 8 ft or more is Destroyed; lower flames Major or Minor; reached but not burned over, Affected. A screening estimate, not an assessment.
| Destroyed | Major | Minor | Affected | Parcels touched | Value lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 | No parcel values |
Roads cut off
94 roads (0 mi) lose every way out, the first at Jul 15, 11:40 AM; the longest is cut off for 5 h 30 min.
| Hour | Roads cut off then |
|---|---|
| +0 h | 0 |
| +1 h | 12 |
| +2 h | 12 |
| +3 h | 12 |
| +4 h | 76 |
| +5 h | 26 |
| +6 h | 26 |
| +7 h | 78 |
| +8 h | 30 |
Smoke damage (estimate)
Smoke damage is likely after three hours or more at Very Unhealthy or worse, possible after any hour at Unhealthy. A screening estimate from the smoke model, for cleaning and claims planning.
| Layer | Likely | Possible | Unlikely |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building_Footprints | 0 | 1000 | 0 |
| WYDOT_Roadway_Names | 0 | 1000 | 0 |
| Units | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| qa_evacuation_zones.geojson | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discovery check · BUCKEYE windiest, Mar 2026
Run 39 of 40 · Finished · 46,612 acres · 3,921 structures · 348 roads · 0 evacuation zones · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
Note
The wind grids could not be made for this run: The wind pass wrote no wind grid.
The run
FARSITE
hourly weather
1 ignition points
Mar 12, 2026, 5:00 AM
61 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
Hourly weather stream: BUCKEYE_50510_2026-03-08_2026-03-15.fw21
1-h 26.7% · 10-h 10.4% · 100-h 14% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
5% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Mar 12, 5:18 AM
leaving 10 min after ignition at about 35 mph
2,688 buildings caught from burning neighbors
an estimate from building separation and wind, included in the counts above
worst Hazardous (341 µg/m³ PM2.5), 19,112 of 60,305 assets in smoke reach Unhealthy or worse, first AVE B-2 at Mar 12, 6:00 AM
ground-level PM2.5 by the hour from a Gaussian plume model and the run's wind; for planning, not a forecast
The weather, in words
Moist fuels, 71 mph wind from the west shaped by the terrain, hour by hour from a weather stream for 61 hours.
Gale or stronger: extreme: expect long-range spotting and runs no line holds.
Light spotting (5% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 325179, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
The fire spreads around the clock.
Dry air (20% relative humidity), 58 °F.
Hour-by-hour weather from the stream BUCKEYE_50510_2026-03-08_2026-03-15.fw21.
Result
46,612 acres burned over 62 h to Mar 14, 7:00 PM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 3,921 of 66,752 within reach | $784,200,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 348 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 240 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | 0 of 25 within reach | — | — | Not reached |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Evacuation zones
0 of 25 zones are warned. Ready 3 hours before the fire is expected to reach a zone, Set 1.5 hours before, Go when it does or when a trigger point for the zone is reached. Measured: A zone touching one under Go is put on Ready.
Damage (estimate)
Each structure the fire reached, on the field (DINS) scale, from how it burned: lit house to house or under flames of 8 ft or more is Destroyed; lower flames Major or Minor; reached but not burned over, Affected. A screening estimate, not an assessment.
| Destroyed | Major | Minor | Affected | Parcels touched | Value lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2728 | 148 | 247 | 798 | 0 | No parcel values |
Roads cut off
574 roads (0 mi) lose every way out, the first at Mar 12, 7:00 AM; the longest is cut off for 54 h.
| Hour | Roads cut off then |
|---|---|
| +0 h | 0 |
| +1 h | 0 |
| +2 h | 6 |
| +3 h | 6 |
| +4 h | 12 |
| +5 h | 12 |
| +6 h | 156 |
| +7 h | 156 |
| +8 h | 132 |
| +9 h | 132 |
| +10 h | 146 |
| +11 h | 146 |
| +12 h | 136 |
| +13 h | 136 |
| +14 h | 156 |
| +15 h | 156 |
| +16 h | 12 |
| +17 h | 12 |
| +18 h | 26 |
| +19 h | 26 |
| +20 h | 26 |
| +21 h | 26 |
| +22 h | 22 |
| +23 h | 22 |
| +24 h | 16 |
| +25 h | 16 |
| +26 h | 20 |
| +27 h | 20 |
| +28 h | 26 |
| +29 h | 26 |
| +30 h | 124 |
| +31 h | 124 |
| +32 h | 118 |
| +33 h | 118 |
| +34 h | 36 |
| +35 h | 36 |
| +36 h | 34 |
| +37 h | 34 |
| +38 h | 34 |
| +39 h | 34 |
| +40 h | 32 |
| +41 h | 32 |
| +42 h | 34 |
| +43 h | 34 |
| +44 h | 74 |
| +45 h | 74 |
| +46 h | 74 |
| +47 h | 74 |
| +48 h | 64 |
| +49 h | 64 |
| +50 h | 64 |
| +51 h | 64 |
| +52 h | 72 |
| +53 h | 72 |
| +54 h | 312 |
| +55 h | 312 |
| +56 h | 310 |
| +57 h | 310 |
| +58 h | 312 |
| +59 h | 312 |
| +60 h | 380 |
| +61 h | 380 |
| +62 h | 56 |
Smoke damage (estimate)
Smoke damage is likely after three hours or more at Very Unhealthy or worse, possible after any hour at Unhealthy. A screening estimate from the smoke model, for cleaning and claims planning.
| Layer | Likely | Possible | Unlikely |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building_Footprints | 43 | 957 | 0 |
| WYDOT_Roadway_Names | 32 | 968 | 0 |
| Units | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| qa_evacuation_zones.geojson | 0 | 12 | 8 |
Baseline · no treatment 4
Run 40 of 40 · Finished · 1,806 acres · 10 structures · 14 roads · 1 evacuation zone · 0 stationsLandscape cut to the area
Landscape cut to the run's area: 10,567,951 of 10,567,951 landscape cells, 100%. A smaller area runs faster.
Fuels
870,567 landscape cells had fuel codes no fire model knows and took their neighbors' fuel.
The run
Minimum travel time
steady weather
A drawn area
Sep 7, 1996, 8:00 AM
2 hours
Laramie LCP · version 2
the simulation's landscape
20 mph from the SW (225°)
gridded over the terrain
1-h 4% · 10-h 6% · 100-h 9% · herbaceous 30% · woody 60%
Scott and Reinhardt · foliar moisture 100%
20% probability
26 of 26 engines arrived, first at Sep 7, 8:09 AM
leaving 5 min after ignition at about 60 mph
The weather, in words
Critically dry fuels, 20 mph wind from the southwest shaped by the terrain, quick spread for 2 hours.
Fresh breeze: rapid spread; spotting becomes likely.
Some spotting (20% ember probability); where embers land is random, fixed by spotting seed 94338, so a copy with the same seed differs only by what was changed.
Crown fire by Scott and Reinhardt, foliar moisture 100%.
Result
1,806 acres burned over 2 h to Sep 7, 9:59 AM
| Assets | Reached | Value | Road miles burned | First reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structures | 10 of 66,752 within reach | $2,000,000 | — | — |
| Roads | 14 of 7,094 within reach, 42,604 in the layer | — | 11 mi | — |
| Evacuation zones | 1 of 55 within reach | — | — | — |
| Fire stations | 0 of 26 within reach, 27 in the layer | — | — | Not reached |
Evacuation zones
1 of 55 zones are warned. Ready 3 hours before the fire is expected to reach a zone, Set 1.5 hours before, Go when it does or when a trigger point for the zone is reached. Measured: A zone touching one under Go is put on Ready.
Damage (estimate)
Each structure the fire reached, on the field (DINS) scale, from how it burned: lit house to house or under flames of 8 ft or more is Destroyed; lower flames Major or Minor; reached but not burned over, Affected. A screening estimate, not an assessment.
| Destroyed | Major | Minor | Affected | Parcels touched | Value lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | No parcel values |
Roads cut off
110 roads (0 mi) lose every way out, the first at Sep 7, 9:15 AM; the longest is cut off for 45 min.
| Hour | Roads cut off then |
|---|---|
| +0 h | 0 |
| +1 h | 0 |
| +2 h | 110 |
Burn probability · baseline weather (copy): assets at risk (burn probability)
From thousands of random fires in this run's weather. High risk: at least a 0.5% chance of burning with flames of 4 ft or more. Could burn: any chance at all. Not at risk: no fire reached it.
| Assets | High risk | Could burn | Not at risk | Expected loss |
|---|
Glossary
The words this report uses, each in a sentence.
Run
One playing of the fire with one set of choices. A simulation holds many runs, so the same fire can be played with a fuel break and without.
Minimum travel time (MTT)
FlamMap's quick way of spreading a fire: it finds the fastest path for fire to reach every cell under one steady set of weather. Good for comparing choices; it does not change the weather as the hours pass.
FARSITE
The hour-by-hour fire model. It grows the fire's edge through the day with the weather changing, so it is slower to run and closer to a real afternoon.
Landscape
The ground the fire burns on: a LANDFIRE grid of elevation, slope, aspect, fuel model and tree canopy, one value per cell.
Fuel model
One of forty standard descriptions of what is on the ground to burn — short grass, dense shrub, timber litter — each with how fast and hot it burns. A fuel break changes the fuel model inside its area.
Cell size
How big each square of the grid is. A coarser grid (60 or 90 m) runs much faster and misses small features like a narrow road.
Fuel moisture
How wet the dead and living plants are, as a percentage of their dry weight. Lower is drier; under 5% in the finest dead fuels is critical.
Spotting
Embers carried ahead of the fire by wind that start new fires. Where they land is random, so two runs with the same inputs can differ a little.
Crown fire
Fire burning in the tree tops rather than on the ground. It spreads fast and throws embers; the model decides when a surface fire climbs into the crowns.
Treatment
A change to the ground before the fire starts — a fuel break, thinning, a prescribed burn — drawn as an area and applied to this run's copy of the landscape only.
Containment line
A line the fire cannot cross in the run: a dozer line, a hand line, a road being held.
Staging area
Where crews and engines gather before they are assigned. Engines in a run drive from their stations to the nearest one.
Temporary refuge area (TRA)
A place people shelter when they cannot get out. The run says when fire reaches each one, which is when it stops being safe.
Evacuation route
A planned way out. The run says when the fire cuts each one; what matters is how much time there is before it does.
Reached
The first minute the fire's grid touches an asset: a building's cell, or any cell a road or parcel crosses. Reached is not the same as destroyed.
Within reach
The assets inside the area this run simulated. "3 of 40 within reach, 212 in the layer" means the layer has 212, 40 were in the simulated area, and the fire reached 3.
House to house
Our own simple estimate of buildings catching from burning neighbors, beyond the wildland fire's reach, from building separation and wind. An estimate, not a published model; it is labelled wherever it is counted.
Smoke (screening estimate)
Ground-level PM2.5 from the fire by the hour, from a simple plume model and the run's wind, in the EPA's air quality categories. Shown only for runs that model it; good for where and when smoke is likely, not for a forecast's numbers.
Value reached
The sum of each reached asset's value column (assessed value, replacement cost) or its flat cost per item. Only what the layers carry; a layer with no value adds nothing.
Baseline
The run the others are measured from in the improvements. Saved means the baseline lost it and this run did not; newly lost means the reverse.
How these runs are worked out
The ground. A LANDFIRE landscape: elevation, slope, aspect, one of the 40 Scott & Burgan fuel models in every cell, and the canopy.
The wind. WindNinja bends the wind around the terrain: faster over ridges, slower in the lee, channeled up valleys.
The fire. FlamMap's minimum travel time finds the fastest path for fire to reach every cell under one set of conditions, using Rothermel's surface spread and Scott & Reinhardt crown fire.
Assets reached. An asset is reached the first minute the fire's grid touches it: a point its cell, a road or parcel any cell it crosses.
House to house. Our own simple estimate, not a published model: a burning home ignites a neighbor within about 12 m (closer counts more downwind) once it is fully involved, about 15 minutes after it caught. The research behind the idea:
Smoke (screening estimate). What burns each hour times its fuel's load (Scott & Burgan) and PM2.5 emission factor (Urbanski), carried by that hour's wind in a Gaussian plume with Pasquill-Gifford spreading and Briggs plume rise, banded at the EPA's AQI breakpoints. A screening estimate, not a forecast.
Runs marked FARSITE grow the fire hour by hour with the weather instead; see Finney 1998.
